Gold, uranium and silver markets
Gold market in 2010
Product and marketing channels
Gold accounts for 98% of AngloGold Ashanti's revenue, with the balance derived from sales of silver, uranium oxide and sulphuric acid. These products are sold on international markets.
Gold produced by AngloGold Ashanti's mining operations is processed to saleable form at various precious metals refineries. Once gold is refined to this marketable form (normally large bars weighing about 12.5kg and containing 99.5% gold, or smaller bars of equal or greater purity weighing 1kg or less) the metal is sold through refineries or directly to bullion banks.
Bullion banks are registered commercial banks that deal in gold, distributing bullion bought from mining companies and refineries to markets worldwide. These banks hold consignment stocks in all major physical markets and finance these inventories from the margins they charge physical buyers.
Gold market characteristics
Gold price movements are largely driven by macroeconomic factors such as inflation expectations, currency and interest rate fluctuations or global and regional political events that are judged to affect the world economy. For millennia, gold has been a store of value in times of price inflation and economic uncertainty. This attribute, together with the presence of significant gold stocks held above ground, has at times dampened the impact of supply and demand fundamentals on the market. Trade in physical gold, however, remains an important factor in determining a price floor. Gold bars and high-caratage jewellery remain a major investment vehicle in the emerging markets of India, China and the Middle East.
The gold market is relatively liquid compared to those for many other commodities, with deep and established markets for gold futures and forward sales on the various exchanges, as well as in over-the-counter markets.
Physical gold demand
The physical gold market is dominated by the jewellery and investment sectors, which together account for some 90% of total demand. The balance of gold supply is used in dentistry and electronics.
While the quantity of gold used in jewellery consumption has decreased over the last decade, the investment market has largely absorbed available supply. Investment in physical gold includes bar hoarding, coins, medals and other retail investment instruments as well as a burgeoning market for exchange traded funds (ETFs). The latter have, since their inception in 2002, entrenched their position as a vehicle for retail and institutional investors. ETF investment activity was once again strong during 2010, with overall holdings continuing to grow, albeit at a slower rate than in 2009.
Newly mined gold accounts for just over 60% of total supply. Due to its high value, gold is rarely destroyed and some 161,000t of the metal, the equivalent of about 65 years of newly mined supply at current levels, is estimated to exist in the form of jewellery, central bank gold reserves and private investment.
Gold demand by sector
The jewellery market improved in 2010 from the previous year, with a welcome return to form for the vital Indian jewellery market. China, the only major gold jewellery market to grow in 2009, showed further growth in 2010. These two countries are the world’s largest gold consumers with high-caratage jewellery (22 carat in India and 24 carat in China) serving an important investment purpose. In fact, jewellery demand significantly exceeds investment demand in the form of ETFs, coins and bar hoarding in both nations.
In India, over 750t of gold were imported in 2010, a new record, and up from 557t the previous year. Indian consumers view gold jewellery as a form of savings and so do not readily sell their jewellery. Gold reached record prices in rupee terms and still consumers did not cash-out en masse, with so-called ‘recycling’ of jewellery remaining around the longer-term average levels of 25%. Unlike 2009, the record gold price has been accepted by Indian consumers who continued a long tradition of buying the precious metal as insurance against inflation and economic shock.
Chinese jewellery demand in 2010 rose some 10% over 2009. Most of this increase took the form of pure gold jewellery, which holds superior investment appeal to the 18 carat variety known in China as K Gold. Nevertheless, the K Gold market also showed a welcome gain of 5%, following a 10% decline in 2009. Consumer psychology in 2010 was marked by the growing perception that gold is an important component of any asset portfolio. This view was previously the domain of wealthy Chinese, but encouragingly, the middle class began to exhibit a similar tendency. Chinese consumers showed little aversion to the higher price of gold, given the investment appeal of pure gold jewellery and a bullish outlook on the gold price.
The Middle Eastern market improved from 2009 levels, but the recovery was patchy and less substantial than the Indian resurgence. In the United Arab Emirates, the jewellery sector experienced a strong rebound in the second half of the year as consumer confidence returned to the local economy. The 22 carat segment remained the category leader thanks to heavy buying from expatriates from the Asian subcontinent. Turkey experienced a moderate increase in jewellery sales and exhibited a promising trend for most of the year. In dollar terms, gold jewellery exports from the region increased by 22%. In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, each quarter saw a year-on-year increase in gold demand but consumers remained cautious given the rising price. Elevated prices, however, kept recycling at customary levels.
ETF holdings experienced mixed fortunes in 2010, after registering net disinvestment in the first quarter. This trend reversed in the second and third quarters before stagnating in the final three months of the year at approximately 2,100t, or around 68Moz.
Growth in gold holdings held by ETFs
2009 vs 2010 (indexed)
The cumulative growth in ETFs for 2010 was around 330 tonnes, in line with annual average growth rates since 2003. In 2009, however, ETF holdings grew by 617 tonnes in a year that saw a 24% rise in the gold price. In 2010, ETF growth was significantly slower despite a 30% rise in the price of the metal. However, the value of the gold ETF market grew by 55% to $34bn.
The universe of gold ETFs has grown steadily since inception, with 16 products now spanning global financial exchanges from New York to Johannesburg and Istanbul to Dubai, among others. In the second half of 2010, China permitted domestic institutional investors to invest in international ETFs, broadening global investment channels for gold and – given the Chinese appetite for gold – generating significant potential for a fresh, largely untapped demand source. In India, the ETF market doubled in volume to around 16 tonnes.
Coin and bar markets in most major markets saw continued firm demand in 2010. In China, investment demand grew to 35% of total demand. China Gold Corporation reported remarkable sales of 45t, while ICBC bank sold 27t of the yellow metal. In the US, several reports chronicled the US Mint’s inability to keep pace with gold coin demand. The Middle Eastern market saw sustained interest in large denomination bullion bars from high-net-worth individuals.
Central bank holdings, sales and purchases
Central banks periodically sell or add to their gold reserves. Most central bank sales take place under so-called Central Bank Gold Agreements (CBGA), which compel signatories to sell in a stable and responsible fashion to minimise the impact on the global market. The third of these agreements, in effect since 27 September 2009, limits signatories to annual sales of 20% less than the previous agreement.
Given the turmoil in global financial markets and the strong performance of gold, it is unsurprising that there was little central bank selling in 2010. In the first full year of the third CBGA, just 6t of sales were reported against the annual quota of 400t excluding sales by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Official sector activity in 2010 was dominated by sales of a portion of the IMF inventory announced in late 2009. In addition to the purchase by the Reserve Bank of India in 2009 of roughly half the 403t offered, Mauritius, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh made their own acquisitions from the IMF. These four countries account for roughly 55% of the gold the IMF had to sell, with the balance sold on the open market.
AngloGold Ashanti’s marketing spend
AngloGold Ashanti has remained committed to growing the gold market.
The company is an active member of the World Gold Council, and subscriptions to this industry body account for the bulk of marketing expenditure. AngloGold Ashanti also remains involved in independent projects to grow jewellery demand in partnership with companies including Tanishq, a subsidiary of the TATA Group. AuDITIONS, the company's own global gold jewellery design competition, promotes improved gold jewellery design and has become a well-recognised corporate marketing tool. See the competition website at www.goldauditions.com.
Uranium market in 2010
AngloGold Ashanti's uranium production is sold via a combination of spot sales and residual legacy agreements expiring in 2013.
After languishing between $40/lb to $50/lb for more than a year, the spot price of uranium began to rise sharply toward the end of October and ended 2010 at $61.50/lb, the highest price since the onset of the global financial crisis in September 2008. The move appears to have been caused by a combination of a production shortfall, restocking by utilities and the launch of a physically backed ETF for uranium.
Demand is likely to remain robust as the number of nuclear reactors increases globally – there are currently 441 reactors in operation and a further 58 under construction. This number is likely to increase as global emphasis shifts towards greener, more environmentally friendly energy sources.
At the moment current demand can be met from existing mine production and stockpiles, however within the next two to three years the market is likely to move to a deficit.
Silver market in 2010
AngloGold Ashanti produces silver as a by-product of gold at a number of its global operations and principally at its Cerro Vanguardia mine in Argentina.
The silver price rallied more than 80% over the course of the year, ending at almost $31/oz from the year’s opening levels of $17/oz. The gold/silver ratio, which measures how many ounces of silver can be bought with an ounce of gold, ended the year well below its five-year average at 47. In addition to robust investor demand, industrial and retail offtake helped improve fundamentals for the white metal.
Although COMEX investors sold silver rather aggressively during the latter part of the year, global silver ETF holdings continued to climb throughout 2010, exceeding 500Moz at year end. This represents an increase of some 100Moz. In addition to the significant ETF boost, GFMS estimated that silver coin minting rose 23% in 2010 and reports suggest continued robust physical demand for silver bars and coins in North America.